Afghanistan,
Photo source REUTERS
US, British
and NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan this summer. The Taliban is
getting stronger and stronger with each passing day, and attacks by al-Qaeda
and the so-called Islamic State are on the rise. Now that Western military
resources are not available in Afghanistan, how will terrorist elements be
prevented in Afghanistan?
Western
intelligence officials still believe that these extremist groups intend to sit
in Afghanistan and plan terrorism in Western countries, just as Osama bin Laden
did on September 11, 2001.
As US
President Joe Biden announces the completion of the withdrawal from Afghanistan
on September 11, British policymakers are increasingly worried.
"This
is not the result we were hoping for," said Sir Nick Carter, Britain's
chief of defense staff.
Also read
Longest US
War: Could Withdrawal Cause Civil War in Afghanistan?
Why did the
Pakistani parliamentary delegation return to Afghanistan from Kabul Airport?
Terrorists a
threat to Pakistan after US withdrawal: General Mackenzie
How does
Pakistan view the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan?
The
uncertainty of the situation in Afghanistan has created a real fear that what
has been achieved in the last 20 years by paying a heavy price against
terrorism will be completely wasted.
John Renee,
a regional affairs expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies,
said: "The problem is that the situation could deteriorate so rapidly that
the Afghan government could not control it despite external US cooperation.
Could find
But that's
what President Biden has always thought. Joe Biden visited Afghanistan as vice
president in 2009 and 2011 during former President Obama's administration. Even
then, he said, rebuilding the country was a waste of time and that the United
States should instead focus on air strikes and special forces operations to
combat terrorism.
The Pentagon
disagreed, and former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote in his memoirs
about Biden that Biden had always been wrong on foreign policy and national
security issues over the past 40 years.
So what will
be the practical form of the West's counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan
after 9/11 this year?
Drone attack
The use of
controlled aircraft (RAPs) or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) was a high
priority under former President Obama when Biden was vice president.
Frequent
drone strikes in Pakistan's remote tribal areas bordering Afghanistan and in
large parts of Yemen where al-Qaeda leaders were hiding had frozen their
operations, according to intelligence officials. Because of these attacks,
commanders had to constantly change their positions and could not stay in one
place for more than one or two nights. It also made it impossible for them to
keep in touch and always feared that when a guest left, they would be hit by an
'unseen enemy' missile. ۔
But drone
strikes have been controversial. Their use has always been a danger, certainly
not for operators sitting in air-conditioned shipping containers thousands of
miles away in Noida or Lincolnshire, but for citizens around the targets.
Despite the
fact that there are very clear scenes on the consoles or screens of the drone
operators, there is always the fear that no civilians will come here at the
last minute like in Syria and This has happened many times in Iraq.
More than
once, the Islamic State's 'executioner', known as 'Jihadi Jones', was targeted
by the US military, but at the last minute was found in the vicinity of
civilians. The attack had to be abandoned.
Drone
strikes in Yemen have always drawn strong objections from human rights groups,
who have repeatedly targeted harmless tribal groups as armed groups.
Across the
Red Sea, in Djibouti, the foreign minister said he had always welcomed drone
strikes against members of the Somali militant group al-Shabab and was ready to
say so on camera.
Access to
intelligence agencies
The US
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the British intelligence agency MI6 and
other intelligence agencies have forged close ties with the Afghan intelligence
service, the NDS, to provide early warning of threats.
This week, a
Western security official said he would continue to receive help from the NDS
even after the evacuation, only to change procedures.
US Army
, Photo
source US ARMY
It is
unlikely that the Taliban will be part of the Afghan government in the future.
So will the Western intelligence agencies be able to exchange intelligence with
them after fighting them for so long? "It's very difficult to
imagine," the official said.
The
important question is to what extent the Taliban were truthful when they
assured Doha that they had severed all ties with al-Qaeda. These ties are
historical, tribal and material, dating back many years to 9/11. The Taliban
are well aware that if they are to take over the future Afghan government,
which is recognized internationally, they will have to stay away from such
banned organizations.
However,
Gavin McNeil, director of the British think tank Eden Intelligence, said it
would be "very simple" to believe the Taliban.
"The US
administration seems to have a nightmare of impossibilities that the Taliban
will sever ties with al-Qaeda and Islamic State and will not allow them to
return," he said. But it has never been believed, it cannot be done and it
will never be done.
Special
Forces operations
Acting on
intelligence, night raids against terrorists have severely damaged militants
and their commanders. Operations with the help of Afghan security have proved
to be very effective in these teams, which often use helicopters to 'kill or
capture' terrorists by walking a short distance away from their hideouts in the
dark of night and carrying out many attacks. Failed.
But if such
operations continue after September this year, they will have to be planned and
carried out outside the country.
These
operations will take longer and will increase the risk of being leaked. In
addition, the search for a place from where these operations can be carried out
cannot be done in one day.
Finding new
bases
US Army
, Image
source REUTERS
A secret
base in eastern Afghanistan from which US special forces used to target key
military targets is being closed.
This is good
news for al-Qaeda and Islamic State, where the threat of US troops armed with
sophisticated weapons attacking at any moment of the night is now gone. So what
alternative place can the United States find in the region?
Geographically,
Pakistan may be the best alternative, but in the West, there are strong
suspicions about Pakistan's ISI, an intelligence agency that has elements
within it that are close to these extremist Islamic groups. There are links.
When the US
intelligence agency launched Operation Neptune in May 2011 to capture Osama bin
Laden, the US did not consider it appropriate to inform Pakistan and its 'Navy
Cell' boarded stealth helicopters in the dark of night. Hundreds of miles into
the airspace of the operation. They feared that bin Laden would not be notified
in advance and would not be able to escape.
US Army
, Image
source GETTY IMAGES
Oman could
be another alternative to Pakistan. Oman's stable pro-Western government has
allowed several foreign bases. The UK is using large bases in Tomaria and, more
recently, in the Arabian Sea coast of Daqqam. Duqm is a thousand miles from the
Afghan border, and any plane would still have to pass through Pakistan's
airspace to reach Afghanistan.
Bahrain
could be another alternative location, with a small British naval base and a
large US naval base of five.
There are
also Central Asian countries that share borders with Afghanistan. Immediately
after the US invasion of Afghanistan on September 11, 2001, the United States
used an old Soviet-era base in East Uzbekistan called the K2. But US troops
withdrew in 2005 after relations between Uzbekistan and the United States
soured. It will not be possible to send US troops to the base again despite
invitations, as the base is contaminated with radiation and chemicals.
The bitter
truth is that it will be very difficult to stop al-Qaeda and Islamic State in
remote areas of Afghanistan. There is no substitute for the availability of
military resources on Afghan soil and their immediate use when needed. It will
now be up to the Afghan government to show how serious it is about stopping
these banned organizations.
John Renee,
who has previously held senior positions in the UK government, paints a very
bleak picture of the situation.
"Given
the extent of extremism in Afghanistan and the extent to which foreign elements
have a defensive interest in keeping terrorist organizations in Afghanistan,
the threat of terrorism will increase," he said.
Post a Comment